查看原文
其他

澳大利亚突然发难,中国再次惨败,铁矿石又被狠宰

视频号 望岳+ 长按识别观看关注
作者:周松涛 来源:首席财经观察

在跟澳大利亚的博弈中,我们一手好牌打得稀巴烂。
 
制裁煤炭、小麦、葡萄酒给澳洲造成的损失,被他们用铁矿石的涨价轻松赚回去了!

疯狂的铁矿,诡异的暴涨
 
每年的冬季,由于天气寒冷和雨雪天气,北方工地往往会停止户外施工,所以钢材需求量一般比较疲弱。


再加上近年来国家为了治理大气污染,冬季北方地区常常会对重污染企业进行限产,所以铁矿石的消费量会受到抑制,正常情况下铁矿石价格不具备上涨的基础。
 
过去几年里,除了2016年冬季铁矿石价格出现较大幅度上涨外,其余年份铁矿石价格都比较平稳,或者出现下跌。
 
而2016年冬季的铁矿石价格上涨,又离不开一个特殊的宏观经济背景,那就是当年大宗商品集体从历史低位大反弹。
 
但是在今年,一切都那么诡异和不同寻常!
 
自10月底开始,铁矿石价格就莫名其妙的一路暴涨。大连商品交易所的铁矿石2101合约,10月26日的时候最低价格仅为756.5元/吨,到了12月10日也就是今天收盘的时候,价格上涨到了1025元/吨。


在短短的33个交易日里,连铁的价格上涨了35.49%!
 
以前铁矿石要涨价,往往还得借助一些不可抗力因素来制造借口,比如去年炒作铁矿石涨价,是利用了巴西矿山发生矿难导致减产,以及借口澳大利亚港口遇到台风无法发运。而事实上,那几个月里,中国港口的铁矿石库存量也在不断减少。
 
但是今年冬季铁矿石价格暴涨期间,并没有出现什么实质性的利好消息,甚至中国港口的铁矿石库存量还处于节节攀升的状态!

“五位一体”挡不住铁矿石暴涨

更加令人无奈的是,在近来铁矿石价格暴涨期间,中国的一些官方或半官方机构曾经试图出手抵抗,但是迎来的却是更加猛烈的暴涨!
 
比如大连商品交易所在12月4日对铁矿石期货发布了市场风险提示函,表示将持续强化日常监管,严肃查处各类违规行为,维护市场秩序。


接着大商所又在12月6日喊话:落实“零容忍”要求,近期交易所已针对铁矿石等品种启动“五位一体”监管协作机制,以发挥监管合力,严格排查市场交易行为,严厉打击违法违规交易行为。 
 
除此之外,大商所还对铁矿石期货合约进行了交易限额、下调交割费用、提高保证金等抑制措施。
 
与此同时,中国钢铁协会也于12月6日透过新华社呼吁:近期铁矿石价格大涨偏离供需基本面,存在贸易商招标异常助推指数上涨、期货市场临近交割月多头逼仓等人为制造市场紧张行为,呼吁相关监管部门尽快介入。


但是大商所和中钢协的连番表态和动作,仅仅让铁矿石在12月7日、8日、9日消停了三天,12月10日也就是今天,铁矿石以一根涨幅近7%的冲天大阳线,一举突破1000元/大关,创下了上市以来的新高。
 
这场对抗中,大商所和中钢协彻底完败,惨遭澳洲老爷们的无情吊打!
 
而今天铁矿石之所以能够如旱地拔葱一样拉出一根大阳线,最主要是澳大利亚那边又在故意搞小动作。
 
澳大利亚议会委员会突然建议西澳大利亚州政府停止发放新的铁矿开采批准,因其影响澳大利亚土著居民遗产遗址。


今年5月份,力拓在在西澳大利亚皮尔巴拉地区扩建铁矿时,爆破摧毁了附近一个有着4.6万年历史的古代土著居民的岩洞,引发了议会的调查,力拓CEO也为此事而道歉和辞职。
 
本来这事已经告一段落了,但是现在在中国出手抑制铁矿石疯涨的微妙时刻,澳大利亚突然祭出这一助攻,很难不令人有所联想!


澳洲操纵铁矿石,疯狂收割中国财富

为什么老周敢说澳大利亚那边的助攻不是偶然呢?
 
因为过去这么多年里,他们搞的小动作实在太多了。下面就来为大家回顾一下,去年以来澳大利亚操纵铁矿石价格的手段。
 
2019年1月25日,巴西淡水河谷公司位于巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州的一处铁矿废料矿坑堤坝发生决堤事故,造成了数百人死亡和失踪的惨剧。由于是三年来第二次发生类似事件,所以巴西政府勒令淡水河谷的一些矿山进行停产整改。


淡水河谷的停产导致了巴西铁矿石出口的大幅减少,所以中国沿海港口积压的铁矿石库存开始下降。结果在3月份的时候,澳大利亚的铁矿石巨头,就借口说受台风影响,遭遇了不可抗力没办法发货。
 
接下来,澳大利亚的矿山就盯着中国的港口铁矿石数据来发货,在中国港口铁矿石库存要回升的时候,就借口台风或者港口检修减少发货,让中国港口的铁矿石库存一直维持在1.2亿吨左右的水平。
 
另一方面,澳大利亚的矿山又跟国内的江浙资本互相勾结,在现货和期货上面互相配合,不断拉抬铁矿石价格,将成本20多美元/吨的铁矿石,以100多美元/吨卖给中国。


 
今年年初,新冠疫情大爆发后,铁矿石价格曾经跟着原油、有色等大宗商品集体下跌,但是总体来说跌幅并不是很大。之后没多久,就传出澳大利亚和巴西因为疫情影响,铁矿石运不出来,所以反而刺激了铁矿石价格出现大幅飙升。
 
以大连商品交易所的铁矿石2101合约为例,4月上旬时价格最低仅为511元/吨,到了9月上旬就价格就拉涨到874元/吨,涨幅高达71%。而在此期间,欧美各国疫情严重,全球铁矿石几乎都在靠中国消费,但是我们却多花了近一倍的价钱。

 
更加恶心的是,2019年铁矿石涨价的时候,理由是中国港口库存在下降。而今年6月份以后,中国港口铁矿石库存从1.06亿吨上升到1.27亿吨的情况下,他们仍然找各种理由涨价。


根据2019年的数据,中国全年从澳大利亚进口了6.65亿吨铁矿石,按照近几个月的铁矿石价格来计算,每年至少要被澳大利亚坑了500亿美元,折合人民币3000多亿。

中国买铁矿石就没有不吃亏

有句名言说:“这世上最好的生意就是向少年卖希望,向女人卖青春,向老人卖健康,以及向中产阶级兜售生活方式。”
 
老周觉得还可以再加一点,那就是向中国出口铁矿石。因为过去20年来,中国进口铁矿石压根就没有不吃亏过。
 
2003年之前,日本一直是全球最大的铁矿石进口国,而铁矿石价格从1980年之后,20多年的时间里一直稳定维持在20美元/吨附近。
 
从2003年开始,中国的房地产行业飞速发展,对建筑钢材的需求量出现井喷,由此也让中国铁矿石进口量超越了日本,并且继续连年大增。


结果从2003年开始,原本一吨20美元的铁矿石就连年飙升,到2011年的时候竟然暴涨到了200美元一吨,8年的时间里整整涨了10倍。


那些年,铁矿石价格之所以能够暴涨,主要原因有两个,第一是日本与澳大利亚互相勾结坑中国,第二是中国内部出了汉奸在为澳大利亚窃取情报。
 
由于日本的新日铁背后的三井财团参股了三大矿山,所以铁矿石涨价虽然会让他们在生产利润方面受损,但是却能够从投资收益方面弥补回来。
 
所以在2005年和2008年的长协谈判中,新日铁出卖了中国的同行,直接与三大矿达成了涨价71.5%和65%的供货协议,狠狠的宰了中国钢铁行业一把。

 
与此同时,中国公派到澳大利亚留学的胡士泰,后来加入了澳洲国籍,被力拓派到中国担任驻华首席代表。他利用华人的身份,借助饭桌酒局作掩护,成功渗透进中国钢铁企业高层,在不经意间套取大量中国企业的商业机密。

 
比方说2008年12月18日中钢协“沙钢会议”制定的2009年度进口铁矿石谈判方案和底线,都被胡士泰弄到手,提供给了力拓。所以在铁矿石谈判中,中国的底线都被人家知道得一清二楚,每次都被人家占尽了便宜。


根据“中国保密在线”网站2009年8月8日发布的《力拓案件折射出什么?》文章中提到:“从力拓电脑中起获的我国钢铁行业大量情报数据及其对国家经济安全和利益造成的巨大损害事实明摆着——这些涉案的经济间谍6年来拉拢收买、刺探情报、各个击破、巧取豪夺,迫使中国钢企在近乎讹诈的进口铁矿石价格上多付出7000多亿元人民币的沉重代价,相当于全国钢铁行业同期利润总和的一倍多,澳大利亚GDP的10%。”
 
钢厂的钱来自于地产,地产的钱来自于百姓,所以这些钱都是中国老百姓没日没夜工作挣来的民脂民膏,却白白送给了澳洲人去花天酒地、不劳而领高福利。
 
事情虽然已经过去十几年了,但是至今读来,仍然令人心痛不已!


50. All you can do is to try your best. Even with those small steps, you're closer to your goal than you were yesterday. 我们能做的只是拼尽全力,即使迈出的步子再小,也比昨天要更接近自己的目标。51. A smile is the shortest distance between two people. 微笑是人与人之间最短的距离。52. Do or do not. There is no try. 要么做,要么滚!没有试试看这一说。53. Courage is being afraid but going on anyhow. 勇气就是虽感恐惧,但仍会前行。54. A man can be destroyed but not defeated. 人可以被毁灭,但不可以被打败。55. A truly happy person is one who can enjoy the scenery while on a detour. 真正快乐的人是那种在走弯路时也不忘享受风景的人。56. No dream is too big, and no dreamer is too small. 梦想再大也不嫌大,追梦的人再小也不嫌小。57. It doesn't matter how many times you fail. What matters is how many times you stand up and try again. 失败多少次不重要,重要的是你能重新站起来多少次,并且继续前行。58. Silence is the most powerful cry. 沉默是最有力的呐喊。《美丽人生》 59. A little consideration, a little thought for others makes all the difference. 一点点体贴,一点点为他人着想,会让一切都不一样。60. Stop waiting for things to happen.Go out and make them happen. 别指望事情会自然发生,行动起来,让它们变成可能!61. Don't look forward to tomorrow, don't miss yesterday, to grasp today. 不憧憬明天,不留念昨天,只把握今天。62. Now we don't call it alive. It's just not to die. 我们现在不叫活着,这只是没有死去。《疯狂原始人》 63. You can change your life if you want to. Sometimes you have to be hard on yourself, but you can change it completely. 有志者事竟成。有时虽劳其筋骨,但命运可以彻底改变。《唐顿庄园》 64. Time will bring a surprise, if you believe. 时间会带来惊喜,如果你相信的话。《浮生物语》 65. What others think is not important . How you feel about yourself is all that matters. 别人怎么想并不重要,你怎么看自己才是关键。66. Don't cry because it is over,smile because it happened. 不要因为结束而哭泣,微笑吧,因为你曾经拥有。67. Tomorrow is never clear. Our time is here. 明天是未知的,我们还是享受此刻吧!《摇滚夏令营》 68. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all. 生活要么大胆尝试,要么什么都不是。69. Pursue excellence and success will follow. 追求卓越,成功自然来。《三傻大闹宝莱坞》 70. Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world. 爬上山顶并不是为了让全世界看到你,而是让你看到整个世界。71. Every step towards your dream today is a step away from your regret tomorrow. 今日为梦想所付出的每一份努力都会减少明日的一份后悔。72. It's never too late to be what you might have been. 勇敢做自己,永远都不迟。(乔治·艾略特) 73. It's time to start living the life you've imagined. 是时候开始过自己想要的生活了!95. How can men succumb to force? 男人怎么能屈服于“武力”之下?《海贼王》 96. Life is like live TV show. There is no rehearsal. 人生没有彩排,只有现场直播。97. Dress shabbily and they remember the dress; dress impeccably and they remember the woman. 穿着破旧,人们记住衣服;穿着无瑕,人们则记住衣服里的女人。(Coco Chanel) 98. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. 希望是一件好事,也许是人间至善,而美好的事永不消逝。《肖申克的救赎》 99. There are so many beautiful reasons to be happy. 有太多太多美好的理由让你笑对生活。100. Where the more different you are, the better. 你们之间越是不同,越好。(Glee) 101. I'm only brave when I have to be. Being brave doesn't mean you go looking for trouble. 我只在必要时才勇敢,勇敢并不代表你要到处闯祸。《狮子王》 102. Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years. 每个牛B的成功者都经历过苦B的岁月。(鲍博.布朗) 103. If you want something done, do it yourself. 靠谁都不如靠自己。《第五元素》 104. Life is a wonderful journey. Make it your journey and not someone else's. 生命是一段精彩旅程,要活的有自己的样子,而不是别人的影子。105. No matter how many mistakes you make or how slowly you progress, you are already ahead of those who never tried. 无论你犯了多少错,或者进步得有多慢,你都走在了那些不曾尝试的人的前面。106. Some things are so important that they force us to overcome our fears. 总有些更重要的事情,赋予我们打败恐惧的勇气。107. Say to yourself: "No matter how many obstacles I encounter in life, I will do all that I can to complete the whole course." 请对自己说:无论生活之路上会遇到多少障碍,我会竭尽所能地跑完这一程。108. No cross, no crown. 不经历风雨,怎么见彩虹。109. Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value. 与其努力成功,不如努力成为有价值的人。(爱因斯坦) 110. Remember when life's path is steep to keep your mind even. 记住:当人生很苦逼的时候,你要保持淡定。111. If you're brave enough to say GOODBYE, life will reward you with a new HELLO. 只要你勇敢地说出再见,生活一定会给你一个新的开始。112. Sometimes the right path is not the easiest one. 对的那条路,往往不是最好走的。113. Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

延伸阅读

来源:腾讯财经

澳大利亚的断供威胁,值得担心吗?


谈到供需关系,就不得不提一下国内铁矿石的主要来源。商务部数据显示,自2011年以来,中国对进口铁矿石已形成高度依赖,目前的对外依存度高达80%左右。


2019年,中国累计进口铁矿石10.68亿吨,同比上升0.5%,同时,2019年中国进口铁矿石累计金额首次突破1000亿美元,达到1014.617亿美元。另据相关报道,62%的铁矿石来自澳大利亚。


但与此同时,中澳两国经贸合作关系出现前所未有的紧绷,澳大利亚外交部长甚至公然叫嚣,要对中国断供铁矿石。



要知道的是,在澳大利亚的对外贸易中,中国是澳大利亚的第一大贸易国。澳大利亚统计局的数据显示,2019年澳大利亚对中国的总出口总额为1504.8亿美元,占其出口总额的39%,铁矿石出口更是占据70%左右的份额。一定程度上讲,与中国的铁矿石贸易也攥着澳大利亚的经济命脉。


因此,“断供”一说或许并不现实。但是,中国铁矿石面临的实际压力并不容小觑。


首先,由于全球近一半的铁矿石产量被淡水河谷、力拓、必和必拓和FMG四大矿商所垄断。


垄断的“底气”来自于成本的绝对优势。下图是全球主要矿商的开采成本,2012年四大矿商的开采成本约为50美元/吨,而中国的开采成本却高达150美元/吨。到2018年,这种差距缩窄,但中国开采成本仍达到70美元左右,将近于对方的3倍。



从储量上看,中国的铁矿石储备其实并不算少,仅次于澳大利亚、巴西和俄罗斯,约占世界储量的12.11%。但是,国内铁矿石约98.8%都是贫矿,铁矿石的平均品位只有35%,而且很多分布在山区内。与之相比,澳大利亚铁矿石平均品位在50%左右,很多都是露天矿,矿机直接开过去,就能很快开始采矿。



结合上文提到过的中钢协与三大矿商的交锋往事,可以说,他们的生产情况直接影响着中国铁矿石的进口价格。


未来:中国能否摆脱铁矿石依赖?


铁矿石进口依赖的同时,中国钢铁行业却始终占据全球半壁江山。面对二者的“剪刀差”,可能有人会问,为什么我们要高价进口铁矿石,而不利用废旧钢铁?


数据显示,截止2019年,中国89%的钢材由铁矿石炼制,废钢炼制占比仅11%。


这是因为,我国现代化建设起步较晚,大部分钢铁投入使用的时间还不长,并未进入钢铁大范围报废的时代。另外,废旧钢材回炉的条件也非常苛刻,与品质相对稳定的矿石相比,回收来的废旧钢材品质不一,需要借助人工分拣,提高了生产难度。


另一个思路是,能否找到其他替代国?


2019年中国进口的10.7亿吨铁矿石中,除了62%来自澳大利亚,还有20%来自巴西。巴西同样拥有高品位铁矿石,这看似满足了国内钢厂寻求提高产量和控制排放的双重追求。


但是巴西的新冠疫情形势尚未明朗,部分限制了其开采和运输铁矿石的能力。与此同时,淡水河谷2019年溃坝事故的负面冲击也远未结束,可能需要几年才能恢复到2018年的生产水平。

往期精彩


罪与罚:如何看待澳军射杀阿富汗平民事件?

赵发言人一条推文一张画,引发澳总理狂怒,要中国道歉;两国关系跌至冰点

天安门南50公里,一场惨烈的城市塌陷

又是山东、东北!透过公务接待看与广东官员作风的不同?
18家大国企几乎全军覆没,这个“国之重器”怎么惨到这一步?
刚刚!南北大众停产!背后的原因令人惊悚
中科院研究员澄清5nm光刻机技术为误读,国产水平在180nm
深圳75万年薪的悲惨生活!
西贝创始人称“996算个啥,我们是715,白加黑”,网友怒了!公司最新回应

做号不易,打赏随意

赞赏

真心感谢每位打赏的朋友
商务合作请加微信2150111或加qq2150111

留言请讲理性、讲技巧,未关注、不上墙

    您可能也对以下帖子感兴趣

    文章有问题?点此查看未经处理的缓存